There is indeed a lot of conjecture
for our honorable Prime Minister; a Ripsnorter; Mr. Narendra Modi, about his
lucky number 8 in his life. And to prove this, we didn’t have to wait long. It
was 8th November 2016, at the struck of 8.00 pm, he declared that
86% of the currency value is dead on that midnight. That clearly means a “Financial
Emergency”, as a country/ State/ City/ District or a Town cannot run on the balance
14% currency cash value in circulation.
As its more than two weeks now,
we shall not be talking on the benefits of Demonetization as by now every next
door person must be aware of the positive side of this decision.
We shall definitely be discussing
later on how the brilliant minds of my country are using different ways to convert black money to white;
ranging from cash bullies to bank note
mafia, from buying gold to real estate , finding Jan Dhan account holders to
paying salaries in advance ; mulling poor people for 2.5 lks to creating backdate
FD in Cooperative banks, from making donations in temple to using professional money
laundering firms run by lawyers and Chartered accountants across the nations.
Mr Narendra Modi has been elected
specifically as P.M by the world’s largest democratic country by means of Indian constitutional
suffrage . NaMo at the time of election , had already reached a state of self-actualization
and had also gained immense popularity to the level that the people of India
knew what type of work deliverance and expectation comes by default with his
tenure and hence the people had now raised their expectation from the political
parties and are only focusing on the targets which were once considered
impossible to start. To win this election, NaMo has made various promises from
bringing back black money to penalizing the group of people who have looted
this country since years. Since then he was referred to as a demagogue by the
opposition parties, which by demonetization decision he proved them wrong. Well
he made his point atleast that this idiom is not for him “Barking dogs seldom
bites”.
Any decision taken by anybody;
politically, economically or socially has its own pros and cons. It is on the
decision maker’s foresight to see and equipoise both the pros and cons and then
decide on the outcome of the dilemma. While, we believe he has taken a
circumspect decision to go ahead with demonetization, there are many who
believe otherwise. Few opposition parties have already deployed a dedicated team
whose sole objective is to specifically besmirch NaMo ‘s reputation, but for a
person who knows how to give a well-fitted reply through his work , should have
no issue on it.
Namo and his team has been
working incessantly since almost for an year and half on revamping the country’s
political and financial position. This is seen by all , appraised by many but
ignored and made fun of it by few. These few are those who wanted to live in
their parallel world and refused to grow out of the well.
Here are some of the reasons why the
oppositions call it Demonetization “Worst Man made Crisis ever”
- Economy disruption:
Ever since the announcement,
economy of our country has almost became stagnant since last two weeks and is
expected to worsen it more by quarters to come. The whole cash run economy has
came to a sudden halt. Industries and penny factory owners are now left with no
cash to pay their workers a daily wage. Real estate slashed , Market crashed ,
People left jobless , factories shut. We do not need to make a Bharat Bandh on
a specific day, Bharat Is virtually bandh since 8th November. It is
only hospitals , grocery stores and petrol Pump are running at a undisrupted
pace. Others are anyways enjoying a “mandatory” bandh. For once I agree with Mamta Banarjee, observing
a Bharat bandh will only increase poor and common mans misery.
- Cash Crunch :
Whilst 86 % currency value in circulation is no more valid, remaining
14 % currency has to feed 125 crores daily needs. To make the situation worse, unscrupulous
elements of our society have started hoarding 10, 20, 50, 100 Rs note straight under
their mattress through bank note mafia by exchanging small amount as commission,
which strengths the cash crunch further.
Also appointing cash bookies for exchanging
over the counter new currency from banks is not being utilized in the market but
rather stashed in locker or farmhouses as a new born or a re-lived black money.
With 86% Illegal notes and adding some more percentage for cash bookies and
bank note mafia, hardly 9-10 % of the currency is in circulation as of now. With
each passing day and a delay in new currency notes circulation, cash crunch has
become a next door issue or to be specific “serious threat to the nation”. If
not solved at an early stage, we might see loots or robbery anytime soon. NaMo
admirers also cannot be expected to resist and last more without food or basic
needs, depriving of which could cause anti-social elements to emerge.
Till the new currency is in circulation in surplus
amount, it is very uncertain to foresee which way our country is moving.
- Sluggish Foreign investment :
Till the time 50 days are
completed from the date of announcement, I do not foresee any such big foreign
investments coming up from anyside. Rather the already invested money are getting
pulled out from the market, which is not reinvested again in India in near
term. With expected increase in the US Federal rate hike likely on 14th
December, further outflow from FII is expected. I do not see any major FII’s
reinvesting in our country for next one year atleast. Investment by Foreign institutional
Investors has always form the major participant in our GDP other than the
domestic productions of goods and services by citizens. Seeing all this, for
once I support Dr Manmohan Singh, our GDP for this quarter and the next, shall
be down by more than 1.5% if not 2%. We shall definitely see a steep decline in
exports in this and next quarters, if not more.
- . Upcoming serious policies by UPA Govt :
While we all somehow at the back
of our mind, knew that this is just the first step towards “changing the nation”
slogan. There are lot more policies or discreet decision to be unveiled in the
next quarters ahead of February budget. And believe me when I say serious
policies means, bubble bursting or affecting the over inflating economy; which indirectly
means a further scar on the already deepened economy. Once such thing is attack
on Benami Properties, crackdown on goldsmiths and speeding up of the
politically targeted court cases. 2017 is going to be a hell of a coaster ride ,
sit back, hold tight and enjoy.
As discussed all of the above difficulties
that the nation is and going to face in near future is only a temporary and a
matter of time. We have patiently waited and watched since last 69 years , that
means it should not be a problem to wait and bear with this situation for next
year.
While the pros are known to all
and cons are listed above, it is on us to decide which side to hang on. But we
as a responsible citizen has to introspect and act accordingly. Whether to create
fuss , as we always do or to be patient enough to stand still to the situation.
A two step backwards for the great high
leap is always welcomed.
Whether the Demonetization will backfire the BJP’s
position in Rajyasabha/Loksabha or would enrich the party further; time will
tell.
